Andrei Arlovski vs Augusto Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record17-8-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
245 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Augusto Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1657
If they lose-13→ 1633
If they win+17→ 1634
If they lose-15→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1653 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiAugusto Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai65%
Andrei Arlovski 35%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 65% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (46%).
Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1646 to 1617, a 29-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Augusto Sakai 65%.
Andrei Arlovski and Augusto Sakai share 1 common opponent: Don'Tale Mayes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.