Andrei Arlovski vs Augusto Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record16-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
77"Reach77"
245 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1649
If they lose-12→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1650
If they lose-16→ 1618
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiAugusto Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai70%
Andrei Arlovski 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 70% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1634), separated by just 3 points.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Augusto Sakai 69%.
Andrei Arlovski and Augusto Sakai share 1 common opponent: Don'Tale Mayes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.