Andrei Arlovski vs Jake Collier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record14-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach78"
245 lbsWeight257 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPit MMA
What's at stake
Andrei Arlovski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Jake Collier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1646
If they lose-15→ 1622
If they win+20→ 1568
If they lose-12→ 1536
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiJake Collier
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Collier59%
Andrei Arlovski 41%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Collier a 59% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Andrei Arlovski's way (37%).
Andrei Arlovski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1548, a 89-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Jake Collier 71%.
Andrei Arlovski and Jake Collier share 4 common opponents: Martin Buday, Carlos Felipe, Chase Sherman and Tom Aspinall.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.