Andrei Arlovski vs Mohammed Usman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record11-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach79"
245 lbsWeight237 lbs
American Top TeamTeamWar Room Kickboxing & MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1649
If they lose-12→ 1625
If they win+16→ 1654
If they lose-16→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1576 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiMohammed Usman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mohammed Usman70%
Andrei Arlovski 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mohammed Usman a 70% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1638), separated by just 1 points.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Mohammed Usman 55%.
Andrei Arlovski and Mohammed Usman share 1 common opponent: Jake Collier.
Mohammed Usman carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.