Andrei Arlovski vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-24-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'5"
77"Reach78"
245 lbsWeight251 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Tom Aspinall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Andrei Arlovski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1654
If they lose-7→ 1630
If they win+10→ 1785
If they lose-22→ 1753
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Andrei ArlovskiTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall92%
Andrei Arlovski 8%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 92% favorite over Andrei Arlovski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Tom Aspinall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1775 to 1637, a 138-point edge.
Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Andrei Arlovski finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Andrei Arlovski and Tom Aspinall share 1 common opponent: Jake Collier.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.