Andrzej Karkula vs Gustavo Lopez
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Gustavo Lopez58%
Andrzej Karkula 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Gustavo Lopez a 58% favorite over Andrzej Karkula in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1632), separated by just 2 points.
Andrzej Karkula enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Andrzej Karkula finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Gustavo Lopez 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record16-8-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'5"
-Reach67"
139 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nowotarski Klub Sportow WalkiTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1654
If they lose-24→ 1606
If they win+12→ 1644
If they lose-12→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrzej KarkulaGustavo Lopez