Andrzej Karkula vs Kamil Korzeniowski
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Andrzej Karkula70%
Kamil Korzeniowski 30%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Andrzej Karkula a 70% favorite over Kamil Korzeniowski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Andrzej Karkula holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1501, a 129-point edge.
Andrzej Karkula enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Kamil Korzeniowski enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Andrzej Karkula finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Kamil Korzeniowski 50%.
Andrzej Karkula and Kamil Korzeniowski share 1 common opponent: Rashidbek Nazirov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record6-6-1
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
-Reach-
139 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Andrzej Karkula is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Kamil Korzeniowski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1645
If they lose-33→ 1597
If they win+22→ 1523
If they lose-10→ 1491
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Andrzej KarkulaKamil Korzeniowski
Win method breakdown
Common opponents (1)
WinSubmission (Rear Naked Choke) · 2025
WinDecision (Split) · 2023