Angel Alvarez vs Bryce Logan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record13-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Angel Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Bryce Logan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1619
If they lose-19→ 1587
If they win+19→ 1566
If they lose-13→ 1534
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezBryce Logan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryce Logan57%
Angel Alvarez 43%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Logan a 57% favorite over Angel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Angel Alvarez's way (42%).
Angel Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1547, a 59-point edge.
Bryce Logan enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Bryce Logan 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.