Angel Alvarez vs Darrell Horcher
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record14-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'10"
69"Reach72,0"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamUnrivaled Athletics
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1532 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezDarrell Horcher
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Angel Alvarez70%
Darrell Horcher 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Angel Alvarez a 70% favorite over Darrell Horcher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.
Darrell Horcher enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Darrell Horcher 57%.
Darrell Horcher carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.