Angel Alvarez vs Joe Giannetti
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record16-5-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'0"
69"Reach42,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kill Cliff FCTeamSouth Shore Sportfighting
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
If they win+16→ 1622
If they lose-16→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Angel AlvarezJoe Giannetti
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Giannetti51%
Angel Alvarez 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Giannetti a 51% favorite over Angel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Angel Alvarez's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1606 vs 1606), separated by just 0 points.
Joe Giannetti enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Angel Alvarez finishes 36% of wins inside the distance, Joe Giannetti 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.