Anthony Rocco Martin vs Jake Matthews
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-0Record23-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamNexus
What's at stake
Jake Matthews is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Rocco Martin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1738
If they lose-15→ 1706
If they win+11→ 1764
If they lose-13→ 1740
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony Rocco MartinJake Matthews
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jake Matthews70%
Anthony Rocco Martin 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Jake Matthews a 70% favorite over Anthony Rocco Martin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Jake Matthews holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1753 to 1721, a 32-point edge.
Anthony Rocco Martin finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Jake Matthews 61%.
Anthony Rocco Martin and Jake Matthews share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.