Anthony Smith vs Dmitriy Aryshev
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Anthony Smith54%
Dmitriy Aryshev 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Anthony Smith a 54% favorite over Dmitriy Aryshev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dmitriy Aryshev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1673 vs 1675), separated by just 2 points.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Dmitriy Aryshev 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record15-10-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height5'11"
76"Reach-
205 lbsWeight187 lbs
Factory XTeamSech Pro· 1660 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1685
If they lose-12→ 1661
If they win+12→ 1687
If they lose-12→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithDmitriy Aryshev