Anthony Smith vs Dominick Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record16-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'4"
76"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamTeixeira MMA & Fitness
What's at stake
Dominick Reyes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1689
If they lose-9→ 1665
If they win+13→ 1762
If they lose-19→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithDominick Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dominick Reyes87%
Anthony Smith 13%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Dominick Reyes a 87% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Dominick Reyes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1674, a 75-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Dominick Reyes 75%.
Anthony Smith and Dominick Reyes share 2 common opponents: Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.