Anthony Smith vs Magomed Ankalaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record21-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
76"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Factory XTeamGorets Fight Club· 1716 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1692
If they lose-6→ 1668
If they win+9→ 1857
If they lose-23→ 1825
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithMagomed Ankalaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev92%
Anthony Smith 8%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 92% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1674, a 174-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Ankalaev 52%.
Anthony Smith and Magomed Ankalaev share 1 common opponent: Johnny Walker.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.