Anthony Smith vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
76"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
If they win+12→ 1686
If they lose-12→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1726 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos55%
Anthony Smith 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 55% favorite over Anthony Smith in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Anthony Smith's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1674 vs 1674), separated by just 0 points.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.