Anthony Smith vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
38-22-0Record22-13-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
76"Reach 76"
205 lbsWeight241 lbs
Factory XTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Anthony Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1687
If they lose-11→ 1663
If they win+11→ 1705
If they lose-13→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1713 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Anthony SmithThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos within a point of even.
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1674, a 20-point edge.
Anthony Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Anthony Smith finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos share 2 common opponents: Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.