Antonina Shevchenko vs Casey O'Neill
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record11-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67"Reach69"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Antonina Shevchenko carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1646
If they lose-14→ 1614
If they win+14→ 1696
If they lose-18→ 1664
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Antonina ShevchenkoCasey O'Neill
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Casey O'Neill79%
Antonina Shevchenko 21%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 79% favorite over Antonina Shevchenko in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1628, a 54-point edge.
Casey O'Neill enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Antonina Shevchenko finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Casey O'Neill 55%.
Antonina Shevchenko and Casey O'Neill share 2 common opponents: Ariane Lipski da Silva and Roxanne Modafferi.
Casey O'Neill carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.