Combat Edge Intelligence

Antonina Shevchenko vs Cortney Casey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-4-0Record10-10-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'6"
67"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Tiger Muay ThaiTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Antonina Shevchenko is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Cortney Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antonina ShevchenkoNow 1628
If they win+13→ 1641
If they lose-19→ 1609
Cortney CaseyNow 1571
If they win+19→ 1590
If they lose-13→ 1558

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1616 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.86
Sig. strikes / min
4.29
55%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4
53%
Strike defense
55%
0.43
Takedown avg.
0.39
43%
Takedown accuracy
31%
54%
Takedown defense
40%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Antonina ShevchenkoCortney Casey
155016001650202020212022

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
1 (10%)
Submission
4 (40%)
6 (60%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Antonina Shevchenko54%
Cortney Casey 46%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Antonina Shevchenko a 54% favorite over Cortney Casey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Antonina Shevchenko holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1571, a 57-point edge.

Antonina Shevchenko finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Cortney Casey 70%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.