Combat Edge Intelligence

Antônio Rogério Nogueira vs Maurício Rua

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-10-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
77"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Team NogueiraTeamUniversidade da Luta

What's at stake

Antônio Rogério Nogueira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Maurício Rua carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Antônio Rogério NogueiraNow 1708
If they win+11→ 1719
If they lose-13→ 1695
Maurício RuaNow 1691
If they win+13→ 1704
If they lose-11→ 1680

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.43
Sig. strikes / min
3.57
35%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.34
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.79
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.64
Takedown avg.
2.01
45%
Takedown accuracy
49%
62%
Takedown defense
49%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Antônio Rogério NogueiraMaurício Rua
1700175020192020202120222023

Win method breakdown

8 (35%)
KO/TKO
21 (78%)
6 (26%)
Submission
1 (4%)
9 (39%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Antônio Rogério Nogueira54%
Maurício Rua 46%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Antônio Rogério Nogueira a 54% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Antônio Rogério Nogueira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1691, a 17-point edge.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Antônio Rogério Nogueira finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.