Antônio César vs Joshua Perreira
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Antônio César67%
Joshua Perreira 33%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Antônio César a 67% favorite over Joshua Perreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Antônio César holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1717 to 1614, a 103-point edge.
Antônio César enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Antônio César finishes 43% of wins inside the distance, Joshua Perreira 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
15-2-0Record6-1-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'7"
-Reach-
125 lbsWeight134 lbs
Carioca Academy· 1610 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamImmortal Martial Arts Center
What's at stake
Antônio César is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Joshua Perreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1728
If they lose-21→ 1696
If they win+31→ 1645
If they lose-17→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1554 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Antônio CésarJoshua Perreira