Arbi Aguev vs Ivan Erslan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
33-13-0Record15-6-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'2"
-Reach72"
206 lbsWeight206 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1613
If they lose-12→ 1589
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1493 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arbi AguevIvan Erslan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ivan Erslan76%
Arbi Aguev 24%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ivan Erslan a 76% favorite over Arbi Aguev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1601 vs 1608), separated by just 7 points.
Arbi Aguev enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Arbi Aguev finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Ivan Erslan 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.