Arbi Aguev vs Raffael Cerqueira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
34-13-0Record11-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'3"
-Reach76"
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1642
If they lose-12→ 1618
If they win+16→ 1645
If they lose-16→ 1613
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1554 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Arbi AguevRaffael Cerqueira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raffael Cerqueira63%
Arbi Aguev 37%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Raffael Cerqueira a 63% favorite over Arbi Aguev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Arbi Aguev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1630 vs 1629), separated by just 1 points.
Arbi Aguev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Raffael Cerqueira enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Arbi Aguev finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Raffael Cerqueira 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.