Combat Edge Intelligence

Archie Colgan vs Rafa García

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-0-0Record19-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Genesis Training AcademyTeamTeam Elevation

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Archie ColganNow 1748
If they win+16→ 1764
If they lose-16→ 1732
Rafa GarcíaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.31
TBD
Strike accuracy
46%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.54
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.13
TBD
Takedown accuracy
44%
TBD
Takedown defense
76%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Archie ColganRafa García
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (38%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
1 (8%)
Submission
8 (44%)
7 (54%)
Decision
8 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafa García60%
Archie Colgan 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafa García a 60% favorite over Archie Colgan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1748 vs 1756), separated by just 8 points.

Archie Colgan enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Rafa García enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Archie Colgan finishes 46% of wins inside the distance, Rafa García 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.