Combat Edge Intelligence

Ariane Carnelossi vs Istela Nunes

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record6-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'2"Height5'4"
61"Reach66"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Inside Muay ThaiTeamTeam Nunes

What's at stake

Ariane Carnelossi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Istela Nunes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ariane CarnelossiNow 1625
If they win+11→ 1636
If they lose-21→ 1604
Istela NunesNow 1501
If they win+21→ 1522
If they lose-11→ 1490

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1594 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.63
Sig. strikes / min
5.02
39%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.61
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.84
44%
Strike defense
60%
1.08
Takedown avg.
0
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
23%
Takedown defense
50%
0.22
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ariane CarnelossiIstela Nunes
15001550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (64%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
2 (14%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (67%)

Combat Edge model read

Ariane Carnelossi87%
Istela Nunes 13%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Ariane Carnelossi a 87% favorite over Istela Nunes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Ariane Carnelossi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1625 to 1501, a 124-point edge.

Ariane Carnelossi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Istela Nunes enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Ariane Carnelossi finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Istela Nunes 33%.

Istela Nunes carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.