Arman Tsarukyan vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record23-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'2"
72"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
Arman Tsarukyan is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Joel Alvarez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1846
If they lose-16→ 1822
If they win+21→ 1736
If they lose-11→ 1704
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arman Tsarukyan74%
Joel Alvarez 26%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 74% favorite over Joel Alvarez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Arman Tsarukyan holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1838 to 1715, a 123-point edge.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Joel Alvarez carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.