Arman Tsarukyan vs Justin Gaethje
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-3-0Record28-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'11"
72"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamGenesis Training Center
What's at stake
Justin Gaethje is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Arman Tsarukyan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1851
If they lose-11→ 1827
If they win+11→ 1880
If they lose-13→ 1856
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1808 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arman TsarukyanJustin Gaethje
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Arman Tsarukyan57%
Justin Gaethje 43%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Arman Tsarukyan a 57% favorite over Justin Gaethje in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Justin Gaethje's way (46%).
Justin Gaethje holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1869 to 1838, a 31-point edge.
Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Justin Gaethje enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Arman Tsarukyan finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Justin Gaethje 79%.
Arman Tsarukyan and Justin Gaethje share 1 common opponent: Charles Oliveira.
Arman Tsarukyan carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.