Combat Edge Intelligence

Arnold Allen vs Gilbert Melendez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen

“Almighty”

21-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1781Great

Tale of the tape

21-4-0Record22-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach73,0"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamSkrap Pack

What's at stake

Arnold Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Melendez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Arnold AllenNow 1781
If they win+11→ 1792
If they lose-13→ 1768
Gilbert MelendezNow 1740
If they win+13→ 1753
If they lose-11→ 1729

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.47
Sig. strikes / min
3.44
42%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.53
60%
Strike defense
63%
0.86
Takedown avg.
1.64
48%
Takedown accuracy
41%
72%
Takedown defense
72%
0.31
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Arnold AllenGilbert Melendez
175018002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
4 (19%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (43%)
Decision
10 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Arnold Allen79%
Gilbert Melendez 21%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Arnold Allen a 79% favorite over Gilbert Melendez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Arnold Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1740, a 41-point edge.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Arnold Allen finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Melendez 55%.

Gilbert Melendez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.