Arnold Allen vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-4-0Record28-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamGracie Technics
What's at stake
Max Holloway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Arnold Allen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1795
If they lose-10→ 1771
If they win+10→ 1840
If they lose-14→ 1816
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Arnold AllenMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Max Holloway53%
Arnold Allen 47%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Max Holloway a 53% favorite over Arnold Allen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Max Holloway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1830 to 1781, a 49-point edge.
Arnold Allen finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Arnold Allen and Max Holloway share 1 common opponent: Calvin Kattar.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.