Combat Edge Intelligence

Arnold Allen vs Melquizael Costa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Arnold Allen

Arnold Allen

“Almighty”

21-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1781Great

Tale of the tape

21-4-0Record26-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Tristar GymTeamChute Boxe Joao Emilio

What's at stake

Arnold Allen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Melquizael Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Arnold AllenNow 1781
If they win+9→ 1790
If they lose-15→ 1766
Melquizael CostaNow 1682
If they win+15→ 1697
If they lose-9→ 1673

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1735 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.47
Sig. strikes / min
4.38
42%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.04
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.97
60%
Strike defense
55%
0.86
Takedown avg.
2
48%
Takedown accuracy
41%
72%
Takedown defense
59%
0.31
Submission avg.
1.09

Trajectory

Arnold AllenMelquizael Costa
16001650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (38%)
KO/TKO
9 (35%)
4 (19%)
Submission
8 (31%)
9 (43%)
Decision
9 (35%)

Combat Edge model read

Arnold Allen64%
Melquizael Costa 36%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Arnold Allen a 64% favorite over Melquizael Costa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Arnold Allen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1781 to 1682, a 99-point edge.

Arnold Allen finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Melquizael Costa 65%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.