Ashley Reece vs Rustam Serbiev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record9-6-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'11"
69"Reach69"
168 lbsWeight169 lbs
HAMMATeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Ashley Reece is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Rustam Serbiev carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1625
If they lose-19→ 1593
If they win+19→ 1559
If they lose-13→ 1527
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ReeceRustam Serbiev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Reece53%
Rustam Serbiev 47%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Reece a 53% favorite over Rustam Serbiev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Ashley Reece holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1540, a 72-point edge.
Ashley Reece finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Rustam Serbiev 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.