Ashley Thiner vs Mia Grawe
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-0-0Record3-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'8"Height5'4"
65.5"Reach65"
125 lbsWeight126 lbs
Three Kings Muay ThaiTeamW4R Training Center· 1623 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Ashley Thiner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Mia Grawe carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1602
If they lose-26→ 1554
If they win+26→ 1573
If they lose-22→ 1525
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1524 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashley ThinerMia Grawe
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Thiner52%
Mia Grawe 48%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Thiner a 52% favorite over Mia Grawe in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ashley Thiner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1580 to 1547, a 33-point edge.
Ashley Thiner enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ashley Thiner finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Mia Grawe 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.