Ashley Watkins vs Valentina Scatizzi
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Ashley Watkins60%
Valentina Scatizzi 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ashley Watkins a 60% favorite over Valentina Scatizzi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Valentina Scatizzi's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1476 vs 1481), separated by just 5 points.
Valentina Scatizzi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Valentina Scatizzi 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record3-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
TBDHeight5'4"
-Reach64"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Mamba Martial Arts AcademyTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1500
If they lose-24→ 1452
If they win+24→ 1505
If they lose-24→ 1457
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ashley WatkinsValentina Scatizzi