Ashley Yoder vs Mackenzie Dern
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-9-0Record17-5-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'7"Height5'4"
TBDReach63"
116 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team QuestTeamRVCA
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Ashley Yoder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1561
If they lose-8→ 1529
If they win+8→ 1743
If they lose-24→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ashley YoderMackenzie Dern
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern92%
Ashley Yoder 8%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 92% favorite over Ashley Yoder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1537, a 198-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Ashley Yoder finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mackenzie Dern 47%.
Ashley Yoder and Mackenzie Dern share 1 common opponent: Angela Hill.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.