Combat Edge Intelligence

Askar Askarov vs Tim Elliott

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-1-1Record21-14-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'7"
67"Reach66"
131 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fighting EagleTeamNext Generation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Askar Askarov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Tim Elliott carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Askar AskarovNow 1744
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-20→ 1724
Tim ElliottNow 1645
If they win+15→ 1660
If they lose-9→ 1636

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1624 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.05
Sig. strikes / min
3.51
54%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3
58%
Strike defense
56%
2.60
Takedown avg.
3.61
25%
Takedown accuracy
25%
67%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Askar AskarovTim Elliott
160016501700175020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (27%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
7 (47%)
Submission
8 (38%)
4 (27%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Askar Askarov75%
Tim Elliott 25%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Askar Askarov a 75% favorite over Tim Elliott in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Askar Askarov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1645, a 99-point edge.

Askar Askarov finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Tim Elliott 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.