Astemir Nagoev vs Louis Jourdain
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record9-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'3"Height5'9"
-Reach69"
127 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
Astemir Nagoev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Louis Jourdain carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1623
If they lose-17→ 1591
If they win+17→ 1609
If they lose-15→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1529 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Astemir NagoevLouis Jourdain
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Louis Jourdain69%
Astemir Nagoev 31%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Louis Jourdain a 69% favorite over Astemir Nagoev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Astemir Nagoev's way (48%).
Astemir Nagoev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1592, a 16-point edge.
Astemir Nagoev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Astemir Nagoev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Louis Jourdain 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.