Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record20-9-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'9"
65"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
DAR Pro TeamTeamMurcielago MMA· 1667 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Asu Almabayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Charles Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1794
If they lose-15→ 1770
If they win+15→ 1722
If they lose-9→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1649 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Asu AlmabayevCharles Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Asu Almabayev69%
Charles Johnson 31%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Asu Almabayev a 69% favorite over Charles Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Asu Almabayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1785 to 1707, a 78-point edge.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Charles Johnson 60%.
Asu Almabayev and Charles Johnson share 1 common opponent: Alex Perez.
Charles Johnson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.