Asu Almabayev vs Cj Vergara
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record12-7-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight127 lbs
What's at stake
Asu Almabayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Cj Vergara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1792
If they lose-18→ 1768
If they win+24→ 1622
If they lose-8→ 1590
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Asu AlmabayevCj Vergara
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Asu Almabayev92%
Cj Vergara 8%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Asu Almabayev a 92% favorite over Cj Vergara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Asu Almabayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1786 to 1598, a 188-point edge.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Cj Vergara enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Cj Vergara 58%.
Asu Almabayev and Cj Vergara share 1 common opponent: Ode Osbourne.
Cj Vergara carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.