Asu Almabayev vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-3-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'4"Height5'6"
65"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
DAR Pro TeamTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Asu Almabayev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1794
If they lose-16→ 1770
If they win+21→ 1684
If they lose-11→ 1652
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1647 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Asu AlmabayevMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Asu Almabayev88%
Matheus Nicolau 12%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Asu Almabayev a 88% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Asu Almabayev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1786 to 1663, a 123-point edge.
Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Asu Almabayev finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Asu Almabayev and Matheus Nicolau share 2 common opponents: Alex Perez and Manel Kape.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.