Augusto Sakai vs Szymon Bajor
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Augusto Sakai59%
Szymon Bajor 41%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Augusto Sakai a 59% favorite over Szymon Bajor in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Szymon Bajor's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1617 vs 1621), separated by just 4 points.
Augusto Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Augusto Sakai finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Szymon Bajor 74%.
Augusto Sakai and Szymon Bajor share 2 common opponents: Phil De Fries and Philip De Fries.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
17-8-1Record27-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
77"Reach-
264 lbsWeight241 lbs
American Top TeamTeamUniversal Rzeszow
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1633
If they lose-16→ 1601
If they win+12→ 1633
If they lose-12→ 1609
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1629 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Augusto SakaiSzymon Bajor