Combat Edge Intelligence

Austen Lane vs Caio Bittencourt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-8-0Record18-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'0"
80"Reach75"
255 lbsWeight205 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamRoxo Strike Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austen LaneNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Caio BittencourtNow 1576
If they win+16→ 1592
If they lose-16→ 1560

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1603 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
41%
Strike defense
TBD
1.52
Takedown avg.
TBD
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Austen LaneCaio Bittencourt
150015501600202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (85%)
KO/TKO
14 (78%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (22%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Caio Bittencourt66%
Austen Lane 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caio Bittencourt a 66% favorite over Austen Lane in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1576), separated by just 2 points.

Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Caio Bittencourt 100%.

Austen Lane carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.