Austen Lane vs Caio Machado
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record13-5-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
80"Reach78"
255 lbsWeight205 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamFranco Kickboxing and Pankration
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
If they win+12→ 1590
If they lose-12→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austen LaneCaio Machado
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado62%
Austen Lane 38%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 62% favorite over Austen Lane in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1578), separated by just 4 points.
Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Caio Machado 85%.
Austen Lane carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.