Austen Lane vs Jhonata Diniz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record9-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
80"Reach 79"
255 lbsWeight255 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamSanta Fe Team
What's at stake
Jhonata Diniz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Austen Lane carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1594
If they lose-12→ 1562
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-20→ 1649
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austen LaneJhonata Diniz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jhonata Diniz71%
Austen Lane 29%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Jhonata Diniz a 71% favorite over Austen Lane in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Jhonata Diniz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1574, a 95-point edge.
Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Jhonata Diniz 78%.
Austen Lane and Jhonata Diniz share 1 common opponent: Mario Pinto.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.