Austen Lane vs Karl Reed
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-8-0Record5-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'3"
80"Reach45,0"
255 lbsWeight205 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamUpstate Karate
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
If they win+24→ 1598
If they lose-24→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1502 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Austen LaneKarl Reed
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karl Reed60%
Austen Lane 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Karl Reed a 60% favorite over Austen Lane in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Austen Lane's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1574), separated by just 0 points.
Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Karl Reed 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.