Combat Edge Intelligence

Austen Lane vs Mike Nickels

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-8-0Record9-5-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height6'4"
80"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight204 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamColorado Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austen LaneNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Mike NickelsNow 1575
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1552 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
4.44
51%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.11
41%
Strike defense
65%
1.52
Takedown avg.
11.11
29%
Takedown accuracy
80%
33%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
2.78

Trajectory

Austen LaneMike Nickels
1600165020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (85%)
KO/TKO
3 (33%)
1 (8%)
Submission
6 (67%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Austen Lane58%
Mike Nickels 42%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austen Lane a 58% favorite over Mike Nickels in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Nickels's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1575), separated by just 1 points.

Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Mike Nickels 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.