Combat Edge Intelligence

Austen Lane vs Yasuhito Namekawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-8-0Record25-16-4
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'6"Height5'11"
80"ReachTBD
255 lbsWeight197 lbs
Bulldog BoxingTeamTeam M.A.D.

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Austen LaneNow 1574
If they win+16→ 1590
If they lose-16→ 1558
Yasuhito NamekawaNow 1576
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1601 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1489 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.74
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
51%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
41%
Strike defense
TBD
1.52
Takedown avg.
TBD
29%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
33%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Austen LaneYasuhito Namekawa
150015501600200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (85%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
1 (8%)
Submission
15 (63%)
1 (8%)
Decision
4 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Austen Lane66%
Yasuhito Namekawa 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Austen Lane a 66% favorite over Yasuhito Namekawa in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Yasuhito Namekawa's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1574 vs 1576), separated by just 2 points.

Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Austen Lane finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Yasuhito Namekawa 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.