Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-2-0Record11-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'11"
70"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
What's at stake
Austin Bashi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Lucas Brennan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1716
If they lose-19→ 1684
If they win+19→ 1660
If they lose-13→ 1628
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin BashiLucas Brennan
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Austin Bashi66%
Lucas Brennan 34%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Austin Bashi a 66% favorite over Lucas Brennan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Austin Bashi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1703 to 1641, a 62-point edge.
Austin Bashi finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Brennan 91%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.