Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Austin Bashi14-2-0Austin Bashi vs Lucas BrennanLucas BrennanSkywalker |11-3-0

Austin Bashi14-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

14-2-0Record11-3-0

25Age26

5'6"Height5'11"

70"Reach71"

145 lbsWeight146 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Lucas BrennanSkywalker11-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Austin Bashi owns a 62-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Austin Bashi and Lucas Brennan across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Austin BashiLucas Brennan

Recent form

Austin BashiL W L W W · 0 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Lucas BrennanL W W L L · -44 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Elo edge

Austin Bashi1703-17 last move

Lucas Brennan1641-17 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

78%Austin Bashi22%Lucas Brennan

Model favoriteAustin Bashi

Elo baseline59% for Austin Bashi

Matchup adjustment+19 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Austin BashiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Austin Bashi leads the full model at 78%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 19 points.

Current Elo ratings1703 · 1641Austin Bashi leads by 62 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1565 · 1518Austin Bashi faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 14 fightsAustin Bashi has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Austin BashivsLucas Brennan

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Austin Bashisubmission leads 43% of wins

Lucas Brennansubmission leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

Francis MarshallAustin Bashi: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Aug 2, 2025Lucas Brennan: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 25, 2026

Tale of the tape

Austin BashiLucas Brennan

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.75Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.96

47Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

2.34Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.86

49Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

7.81Takedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

9Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 30%

63Takedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

1.67Submission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.63

3Wins by knockout2

6Wins by submission8

5Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision3

Austin Bashi vs Lucas Brennan is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Austin Bashi enters with a 14-2-0 record and Lucas Brennan enters with a 11-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.