Austin Hubbard vs Kurt Holobaugh
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record21-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
71"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamGracie United
What's at stake
Kurt Holobaugh is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Austin Hubbard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1619
If they lose-10→ 1595
If they win+10→ 1669
If they lose-14→ 1645
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin HubbardKurt Holobaugh
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Austin Hubbard58%
Kurt Holobaugh 42%Elo baseline: 42%
The Combat Edge model makes Austin Hubbard a 58% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kurt Holobaugh's way (42%).
Kurt Holobaugh holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1605, a 54-point edge.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Kurt Holobaugh 81%.
Austin Hubbard and Kurt Holobaugh share 1 common opponent: Alexander Hernandez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.