Austin Hubbard vs Mark Madsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-11-0Record12-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamRumble Sports
What's at stake
Mark Madsen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Austin Hubbard carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1620
If they lose-9→ 1596
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-20→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1625 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Austin HubbardMark Madsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Austin Hubbard52%
Mark Madsen 48%Elo baseline: 37%
The Combat Edge model makes Austin Hubbard a 52% favorite over Mark Madsen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Madsen's way (37%).
Mark Madsen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1605, a 89-point edge.
Austin Hubbard enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Mark Madsen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Austin Hubbard finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Mark Madsen 50%.
Austin Hubbard and Mark Madsen share 1 common opponent: Vinc Pichel.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.