Axel Jean Alphonse vs Roman Sandoval
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Roman Sandoval51%
Axel Jean Alphonse 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roman Sandoval a 51% favorite over Axel Jean Alphonse in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Axel Jean Alphonse's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1498 vs 1498), separated by just 0 points.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
1-1-0Record1-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'7"
-Reach-
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
US Metro Bizot· 1553 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeamIsco Fighters
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1522
If they lose-24→ 1474
If they win+24→ 1522
If they lose-24→ 1474
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Axel Jean AlphonseRoman Sandoval