Axel Jean Alphonse vs Shane Mistretta
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-0-0Record5-4-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeightTBD
TBDReach-
155 lbsWeight169 lbs
US Metro Bizot· 1558 avg Elo · 8 ratedTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1548
If they lose-24→ 1500
If they win+16→ 1540
If they lose-16→ 1508
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Axel Jean AlphonseShane Mistretta
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Mistretta80%
Axel Jean Alphonse 20%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Mistretta a 80% favorite over Axel Jean Alphonse in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Axel Jean Alphonse's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1524 vs 1524), separated by just 0 points.
Shane Mistretta enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Shane Mistretta 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.