Combat Edge Intelligence

Ayumu Yamamoto vs Connor Matthews

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

6-3-0Record7-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
-Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
K-PlaceTeamLakeville MMA & Fitness

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ayumu YamamotoNow 1553
If they win+24→ 1577
If they lose-24→ 1529
Connor MatthewsNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1503 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.08
TBD
Strike accuracy
43%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.25
TBD
Strike defense
56%
TBD
Takedown avg.
3.46
TBD
Takedown accuracy
56%
TBD
Takedown defense
50%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.69

Trajectory

Ayumu YamamotoConnor Matthews
15501600202320242025

Win method breakdown

3 (50%)
KO/TKO
1 (14%)
3 (50%)
Submission
5 (71%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Ayumu Yamamoto60%
Connor Matthews 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Ayumu Yamamoto a 60% favorite over Connor Matthews in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Connor Matthews's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1553 vs 1560), separated by just 7 points.

Connor Matthews enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Ayumu Yamamoto finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Connor Matthews 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.